Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is setting a price target for Bitcoin (BTC) if it were to collapse.
In a new strategy session, Cowen tells his 783,000 YouTube subscribers that in a “worst-case scenario,” Bitcoin could dive by over 47% from its current value.
Cowen says Bitcoin could rally in the coming months and then “back test” a diagonal trendline, putting the king crypto at $12,000 in August 2023.
“If it were August of 2023, like right around here [at $12,000], and it [currently] rallies on up [to $26,000] and then sort of sits up here for a while, and then comes back down and then that ends up being the bottom [at $12,000], it would also actually correspond to hitting this trendline again, the low [in May 2022], the lower low [in November 2022], and then maybe one last low again [in August 2023], if November is not the bottom. This is of course assuming November is not the bottom, which admittedly, again, it could be. So the worst-case scenario is something like that.”
Cowen next looks at Bitcoin’s price related to the 50-week moving average to analyze the possibility of Bitcoin dipping below the November bottom. The analyst says that the 50-week moving average has served as a key resistance indicator after a lengthy bear market during previous cycles, and it may be on the verge of doing so again.
“We’ve got three examples after basically a long bear market. The first one [in 2012], rejection, then a higher low and blast off. The second one [in 2015], rejection, double bottom, then go. The third one [in 2019], we hesitated, got through it, ultimately capitulated back down below it, and then put in a slightly higher low…
Normally the 50-week offers some resistance at least on the first attempt, even in 2019 when we got by it, we still hesitated at it for about a month before making our way through it. Where does the 50-week sit [now]? Just above $25,000, which also corresponds this prior local high right here [in January 2022].”
Bitcoin is worth $22,860 at time of writing.